MITIGATION STRATEGIES

MITIGATION STRATEGIES

This part of the module illustrates the difference between passive and active methods of risk reduction as well as five basic types of measures available for use in planning mitigation programs:Engineering and construction measures
Physical planning measures
Economic measures
Management and institutional measures
Societal measures




Protection against threats can be achieved by removing the causes of the threat, (reducing the hazard) or by reducing the effects of the threat if it occurs (reducing the vulnerability of elements at risk).
For most types of natural disaster, it is impossible to prevent the actual geological or meteorological process from occurring: volcanos erupt, earthquakes occur, cyclones and wind storms rage. The focus of mitigation policies against these hazards is primarily on reducing the vulnerability of elements that are likely to be affected. Some natural hazards can be reduced in certain circumstances

ACTIVE AND PASSIVE MITIGATION MESURES


Passive mitigation measuresAuthorities prevent undesired actions through controls and penalties by:

Requirement to conform with design codes
Checking compliance of controls on-site
Imposing court proceedings, fines, closure orders on offenders
Control of land use
Denial of utilities and infrastructure to areas where development is undesired
Compulsory insuranceRequirements of passive control systems
a. An existing and enforceable system of control
b. Acceptance by the affected community of the objectives and the authority imposing the controls
c. The economic capability of the affected community to comply with the regulations.Active mitigation measures

Authorities promote desired actions through incentives like:
Planning control dispensations
Training and education
Economic assistance (grants and preferential loans)
Subsidies on safety equipment, safer building materials, etc.
Provision of facilities: safer buildings, refuge points, storage
Public information dissemination and awareness raising
Promotion of voluntary insurance
Creation of community organizations
Active Programs
a. Aim to create a self-perpetuating safety culture in areas of weak authority or poor ability to comply with existing controls.
b. Require large budgets, skilled manpower and extensive administration.
c. Are useful in areas of low income, rural areas or elsewhere where there is no external jurisdiction over land use or building activity.
Safety standards, construction codes and building regulations form part of the normal apparatus that government use to help a community protect itself. One of the simplest measures for national authorities to take is to pass legislation for a national building code that requires new buildings and infrastructures to be resistant to the various hazards prevalent in that country. Some 40 earthquake-prone countries currently have seismic building codes for new construction. However, codes themselves are likely to have little effect unless the building designers are aware of them and understand them, and unless the community considers them necessary, and unless they are enforced by competent administrators
The multiplicity of hazards and the different ways of reducing their various effects on the elements at risk is further compounded by the type of community powers and budgets available to the decision-makers. There is no standard solution to mitigating a disaster risk. The construction of large-scale engineering projects in Japan and other high-income countries to give protection against floods and volcanic debris flows, is not appropriate to mitigating similar hazards in developing countries. The enforcement of town planning regulations, and what is considered an acceptable level of interference by an authority on individual's right to build, varies considerably from one country to another, it varies from rural to urban situations and from one community and culture to the next.
The prohibition of building houses on hazardous slopes may seem sensible but is unenforceable in cities where economic pressures to locate on such locations outstrip concerns of illegality. The right of a municipal engineer to inspect the seismic resistance of a building under construction may be accepted in major cities of a country but would be objected to in the more remote villages of the same province.
　
TECHNIQUES AND MESURES OF MITIGATION

The techniques or measures that an authority might consider in assembling an appropriate package for disaster mitigation can be classified as:
Engineering and construction
Physical planning
Economic
Management and institutional
Societal
　Engineering and construction measures
Engineering measures are of two types. Those that result in stronger individual structures that are more resistant to hazards, and those that create structures whose function is primarily disaster protection - flood control structures, dikes, levees, infiltration dams, etc.
Actions of the first type are mainly actions on individual buildings and structures and are sometimes referred to as 'hardening' facilities against hazard forces. Improving the design and construction of buildings, agricultural structures, infrastructure and other facilities can be achieved in a number of ways.

Design standards, building codes and performance specifications are important for facilities designed by engineers. Engineering design against the various hazards may include design for vibration, lateral loads, load surcharges, wind loads, impact, combustibility, flood resistance and other safety factors. Building codes are the critical front line defence for achieving stronger engineered structures, including large private buildings, public sector buildings, infrastructure, transportation networks and industrial facilities.
Disaster-resistance based building codes are unlikely to result in stronger buildings unless the engineers who have to implement the code accept its importance and endorse its use, understand the code and the design criteria required of them and unless the code is fully enforced by authorities through checking and penalizing designs that do not comply
A large number of the buildings likely to be affected in a disaster, and those most vulnerable to hazards are not designed by engineers and will be unaffected by safety standards established in the building codes. Persuading owners and communities to build safer, more disaster-resistant structures and to pay the additional costs involved is required to make builder training effective.
Apart from new buildings, the existing building stock also may need to be 'hardened' against future hazard impacts. The vulnerability of existing buildings can be reduced to some degree by regular maintenance and structural care
Physical planning measures
Many hazards are localized with their likely effects confined to specific known areas: Floods affect flood plains, landslides affect steep soft slopes, etc. The effects can be greatly reduced if it is possible to avoid the hazardous areas being used for settlements or as sites for important structures. Most urban masterplans involving land use zoning probably already attempt to separate hazardous industrial activities from major population centers. Urban planning needs to integrate awareness of natural hazards and disaster risk mitigation into the normal processes of planning the development of a city.
Location of public sector facilities is easier to control than private sector location or land use. The careful location of public sector facilities can itself play an important role in reducing the vulnerability of a settlement. An important principle is deconcentration of elements at risk: services provided by one central facility are always more at risk than those provided by several smaller facilities. The principle of deconcentration also applies to population densities in a city: a denser concentration of people will always have more disaster potential than if they are more dispersed.
The location of public sector facilities is easier to control than those in the private sector. In many rapidly developing cities, the control of private sector land use through urban masterplanning and development permissions is almost impossible. It is often private sector land use, the informal sectors and shanty towns that pose the highest risks of disaster
Economic measuresMitigation measures that help the community reduce future economic losses, help members withstand losses and improve their ability to recover after loss and measures that make it possible for communities to afford higher levels of safety are important elements of an overall mitigation program

Diversification
Economic incentives and penalties are an important part of the powers of any authority. Grants, loans, taxes, tax concessions and fines can be used to influence the decisions people make to reduce disaster-related risks. Industrial location is commonly influenced by government incentives which can be used to attract industry to safer locations or to act as a focus for population relocation. Property taxation can be used to penalize more vulnerable structures and structures built in less desirable locations. Grants and loans can be offered to assist owners to upgrade their property and make buildings more disaster resistant.
Commercial insurance is expensive and its viability is determined by accurate calculation of risk. With only a small number of premium payers, premiums remain high and are prohibitive to potential policy holders. The more widespread policy holding becomes, the lower the premiums are and the more widespread insurance use is likely to be. Encouragement of people to protect themselves through insurance ensures that a level of protection is built up.
Compulsory insurance schemes have not been successful and national governments rarely have the financial resources to dedicate to disaster insurance guarantees, although many countries build up a disaster reconstruction fund through general taxation. Disaster insurance is high-risk finance and only multi-national insurance companies can gather the resources to cover the losses of any sizeable disaster. It is unlikely to be available to protect poorer or rural communities and their disaster-protection investments unless backed by a large development agency.
Management and institutional measures
Disaster mitigation also requires certain organizational and procedural measures. The time span over which a significant reduction can be achieved in the potential for disaster is long. Changes in physical planning, upgrading structures and changes in the characteristics of building stock are processes that take decades. The objectives and policies that guide the mitigation processes have to be sustained over a number of years, and have to survive the changes in political administration that are likely to happen within that time, the changes in budgetary priorities and policies on other matters. The institutionalization of disaster mitigation requires a consensus of opinion that efforts to reduce disaster risk are of continual importance.
Education, training and professional competence, and political will, are necessary aspects of institutionalizing disaster mitigation. The professional training of engineers, planners, economists, social scientists and other managers to include hazards and risk reduction within their normal area of competence is gradually becoming common. Increasing the exposure of these groups to international expertise and transfer of technology in disaster mitigation is an important part of building capability in the affected country.
Information is a critical element in planning for disaster mitigation, but there are many hazard-prone countries where the basic meteorological and geological observatories to monitor hazards have not been established or do not have the resources to carry out their job. Research, technical expertise and policy-making organizations are important resources for developing mitigation strategies both nationally and locally.
Information is a critical element in planning for disaster mitigation, but there are many hazard-prone countries where the basic meteorological and geological observatories to monitor hazards have not been established or do not have the resources to carry out their job. Research, technical expertise and policy-making organizations are important resources for developing mitigation strategies both nationally and locally.
Societal measures
The mitigation of disasters will only come about when there is a consensus that it is desirable, feasible and affordable. In many places, the individual hazards that threaten are not recognized, the steps that people can take to protect themselves are not known and the demand of the community to have themselves protected is not forthcoming. Mitigation planning should aim to develop a disaster 'safety culture' in which the people are fully aware of the hazards they face, protect themselves as fully as they can and fully support efforts made on their behalf to protect them.
　
Public awareness can be raised in a number of ways, from short-term, high-profile campaigns using broadcasts, literature and posters, to more long-term, low-profile campaigns that are carried out through general education. Education should attempt to familiarize and de-sensationalize. Everyone who lives in a hazard-prone area should understand hazards as a fact of life. Information about hazards should be part of the standard curriculum of children at school and be part of everyday information sources, with occasional mentions of them in stories, TV soap operas, newspapers and other common media. The objective is to develop an everyday acknowledgment of hazard safety where people take conscious, automatic precautions through being aware of, but not terrified of, the possibility of hazard occurrence. Their understanding should include being aware of what to do in the event, and a sense that their choice of house, the placement of that bookcase or stove and the quality of construction of the garden wall around their children's play area all affect their own safety.
　
　
　
　
　
　
　
　
　 of economic activity is as important an economic principle as deconcentration is in physical planning. A single industry (or single-crop) economy is always more vulnerable than an economy made up of many different activities. The linkages between different sectors of an economy - the transportation of goods, the flow of information, the labor market - may be more vulnerable to disruption from a disaster than the physical infrastructure that is the means of production.

SPECIFIC HAZARDS AND MITIGATION MESURES 2

Land instabilities

Mechanism of destruction
Landslides
Parameters of severity
Volume of material dislodged (m^{3), area buried or affected, velocity (cm/day), boulder sizes.}
Causes

Gravitational forces imposed on sloping soils exceed the shear strength of soils that hold them in position. High water content makes soil heavier, increasing the load, and decreasing shear strength. With these conditions heavy rainfalls or flooding make landslides more likely to happen. The angle of slope at which soils are stable is a physical property of the soil. Steep cuttings through some types of soils makes them unstable. Triggering of the collapse of unstable soils can be caused by almost any minor event: storms, minor ground tremors or man-made actions. Liquifaction is caused by earthquake vibrations through loose soils, usually with high water content.

Hazard assessment and mapping techniques
Identification of previous landslides or ground failures by geotechnical survey. Identification of probability of triggering events such as earthquakes. Mapping of soil types (surface geology) and slope angles (topographic contouring). Mapping of water tables, hydrology and drainage. Identification of artificial land fill, man-made mounds, garbage pits, slag heaps. Investigation into the probability of triggering events, especially earthquakes.

Potential for reducing hazard
Landslide risk for a slope reduced by shallower slope angles (excavating top layer to cut back slope), increasing drainage (both deep drainage and surface run-off) and engineering works (piling, ground anchors, retaining walls). Shallower angles for embankments and cuttings, terracing slopes and forestation can prevent loss of surface material to depth of root penetration. Debris flows can be directed into specially constructed channels if they are expected. Rockfall protection barriers (trenches, slit dams, vegetation barriers) can protect settlements.
Onset and warning
Most landslides occur gradually at rates of a few centimeters an hour. Sudden failures can occur without warning. Rockfalls are sudden but noisy. Debris flows sudden, but precursory trickles of material may give a few minutes of warning if population is prepared.

Elements most at risk
Settlements built on steep slopes and softer soils or along cliff tops. Settlements built at the base of steep slopes, on alluvial outwash fans or at the mouth of streams emerging from mountain valleys. Roads and other communication lines through mountain areas. Masonry buildings. Buildings with weak foundations. Large structures without monolithic foundations. Buried utilities, brittle pipes.

Main mitigation strategies
Location planning to avoid hazardous areas being used for settlements or as sites for important structures. In come cases relocation may be considered. Reduce hazards where possible. Engineering of structures to withstand or accommodate potential ground movement. Piled foundations to protect against Liquefaction. Monolithic foundations to avoid differential settlements. Flexible buried utilities. Relocation of existing settlements or infrastructure may be considered.
Community participation
Recognizing land instability potential and identifying active landslides. Avoidance of siting houses in hazardous locations. Construction of strong foundations for structures. Compaction of ground locally. Slope stabilization through terracing and forestry. Rockfall barriers (trees and earth banking).
　
　
Strong winds (typhoons, hurricanes, cyclones, tropical storms and tornados)

Mechanism of destruction
Pressure and suction from wind pressure, buffeting for hours at a time. Strong wind loads imposed on a structure may cause it to collapse, particularly after many cycles of load reversals. More common damage is building and non-structural elements (roof sheets, cladding, chimneys) blown loose. Wind-borne debris causes damage and injury. High winds cause stormy seas that can sink ships and pound shorelines. Many storms bring heavy rains. Extreme low air pressure at the center of a tornado is very destructive and houses may explode on contact.

Parameters of severity
Velocity of wind. Wind scales (e.g. Beaufort) gale severity scale. Local hurricane/typhoon scales.

Causes
Winds generated by pressure differences in weather systems. Strongest winds generated in tropics around severe low pressure systems several hundreds of kilometers diameter (cyclones) known as typhoons in the Pacific and as hurricanes in Americas and elsewhere. Extreme low pressure pockets of much narrower diameter generate rapidly twisting winds in tornados.

Hazard assessment and mapping techniques
Meteorological records of wind speeds and direction at weather stations gives probability of high winds in any region. Local factors of topography, vegetation and urbanization may affect microclimate. Past records of cyclone and tornado paths give common patterns of occurrence for damaging wind systems.

Potential for reducing hazard
None. Cloud seeding may dissipate rain content.

Onset and warning
Tornados may strike suddenly but most strong winds build up strength over a number of hours. Low pressure systems and tropical storm development can be detected hours or days before damaging winds affect populations. Satellite tracking can help follow movement of tropical storms and project likely path. The movements of weather systems are however, complex and still difficult to predict with accuracy.

Elements most at risk
Lightweight structures and timber housing. Informal housing sectors and shanty settlements. Roofs and cladding. Loose or poorly attached building elements, sheets and boards. Trees, fences, signs etc. Telegraph poles, pylons and high-level cables. Fishing boats or other maritime industries.

Main mitigation strategies
Engineering of structures to withstand wind forces. Wind load requirements in building codes. Wind safety requirements for non-structural elements. Good construction practices. Micro-climatic siting of key facilities, e.g. in lee of hillsides. Planting of windbreaks, planning of forestry areas upwind of towns. Provision of wind-safety buildings (e.g. strong village halls) for community shelter in vulnerable settlements.
Community participation
Construction of wind-resistant or easily rebuilt houses. Securing fixing of elements that could blow away and cause damage or injury elsewhere, e.g. metal sheeting, fences, signs. Preparedness for storm action. Taking shelter in strong, wind-resistant buildings. Protection measures for boats, building contents or other possessions at risk.
　
Technological hazards
Explosions cause loss of life, injury and destruction of buildings and infrastructure; transportation accidents kill and injure passengers and crew, and may release hazardous and polluting substances; industrial fires can achieve very high temperatures and affect large areas; hazardous substances released into the air or water can travel long distances and cause contamination of air, water supply, land, crops and livestock making areas uninhabitable for humans; wildlife is destroyed, and ecological systems disrupted. Large-scale disasters can threaten the stability of the global ecology.

Parameters of severity
Quantity of hazardous substances released; temperature of fire; extent of explosion destruction; area of contamination of air, sea, groundwater; local intensity of contamination (parts per million, Becquerels/liter for radio-activity).
Causes
Fire; failures of plant safety design; incorrect plant operating procedures; failures of plant components; accidental impact; arson and sabotage; earthquakes.
Hazard assessment and mapping techniques
Inventories and maps of storage locations of toxic/hazardous substances and their characteristics; common transportation routes for dangerous substances; maps of possible zone of contamination and contamination intensity in the event of a release of any given size; traffic corridors and historical accident records for transportation hazard areas;

Potential for reducing hazard
Improved safety standards in plant and equipment design; anticipation of possible hazards in plant design; fail-safe design and operating procedures; dispersal of hazardous materials; legislation; preparedness planning

Onset and warning
Rapid (minutes or hours) or sudden (no warning); industrial plant design should incorporate monitoring and warning systems for fire, component failure and build-up of dangerous conditions; release of pollutants may be slow enough for warning and evacuation of plant operatives and public; explosions can in some cases be anticipated.

Elements most at risk
Industrial plant or vehicle and its employees or crew; passengers or residents of nearby settlements; adjacent buildings; livestock/crops in the vicinity of the plant (up to hundreds of kilometers in the case of large-scale releases of airborne pollutants and radioactive materials); regional water supply and hydrology; fauna and flora.
Main mitigation strategies
Reduce or eliminate hazard by the means listed above; improve fire-resistance by use of fire-resistant materials, building fire barriers, smoke extraction; improving detectors and warning systems; preparedness planning - improve firefighting and pollution dispersal capabilities, and emergency relief and evacuation planning for plant employees and nearby settlements, (crew and passengers in the case of vehicles). Initiate on-site and off-site safety plans, conduct drills in conjunction with local fire departments. Improve capabilities of civil defense and emergency authorities. Limit or reduce storage capacity of dangerous or flamable chemicals.

Community participation
Action to monitor pollution levels, to ensure inspection and enforcement of existing safety standards and to improve safety legislation. Prepare evacuation plans.
　
Drought and desertification
Lack of water affects health of crops, trees, livestock, humans: land becomes subject to erosion and flooding; effects are gradual but if not checked, crops and trees and livestock die, people lose livelihood, are forced to move, and may starve if aid is not provided: then buildings and infrastructure are abandoned and decay and cultural artifacts are lost.
Parameters of severity
Rainfall level, rainfall deficit (mm), period of drought; extent of loss of soil cover, extent of desert climatic zone.
Causes
Drought mainly caused by short-term periodic fluctuations in rainfall level; possibly by long-term climatic changes; desertification caused by loss of vegetation and subsequent land erosion caused by combination of drought, overgrazing and poor land management.
Hazard assessment and mapping techniques
Rainfall map indicating areas of desert and semi-desert climatic conditions; mapping of erosion rates and desertification.
Potential for reducing hazard
Drought is uncontrollable; desertification can be reduced by improved land management practices, forest management, infiltration dams, irrigation and range management (control of land use and animal grazing patterns).
Onset and warning
Slow onset, period of years, many warnings by rainfall levels, river, well and reservoir levels, human and animal health indicators. Onset of severe drought, causes death of livestock, rise in infant mortality, migration.
Elements most at risk
Crops and forests; human and animal health, all economic activities dependent on continuous water supply; entire human settlements if drought is prolonged.

Main mitigation strategies
Water rationing; conserving or replacing failing water supply by watershed management, construction of dams, pipelines or aqueducts; conserving soil and reducing erosion rates by checking dams, levelling, planting, herd management; reducing firewood cutting by improved fuel stoves, introduction of flexible farming and cropping patterns; population control; education and training programs.
Community participation
Construction of check dams, reservoirs, wells, water tanks, planting and afforestation; changing cropping patterns; introducing water conservation policies; changing livestock management practices; development of alternative non-agricultural industries.

Mechanisms of destruction

Mechanism of destruction

destroy structures, roads, pipes and cables either by the ground moving out from beneath them or by burying them. Gradual ground movement causes tilted, unusable buildings. Cracks in the ground split foundations and rupture buried utilities. Sudden slope failures can take the ground out from under settlements and throw them down hillsides. Rockfalls cause destruction from fragmentation of exposed rock faces into boulders that roll down and collide into structures and settlements. Debris flows in softer soils, slurry material, man-made spoil heaps and soils with high water content flow like a liquid, tilling valleys, burying settlements, blocking rivers (possibly causing floods) and blocking roads. Liquefaction of soils on flat land under strong vibrations in earthquakes is the sudden loss of the strength of soils to support structures that stand on it. Soils effectively turn temporarily to liquid allowing structures to sink or fall over.

SPECIFIC HAZARDS AND MITIGATION MESURES 1

Floods and water hazardsMechanism of destruction
Inundation and flow of water with mechanical pressures of rapidly flowing water. Currents of moving or turbulent water can knock down and drown people and animals in relatively shallow depths. Debris carried by the water is also destructive and injurious. Structures are damaged by undermining of foundations and abutments. Mud, oil and other pollutants carried by the water is deposited and ruins crops and building contents. Flooding destroys sewerage systems, pollutes water supplies and may spread disease. Saturation of soils may cause landslides or ground failure.
Parameters of severity
Area flooded (km^{2), depth or height of flood, velocity of water flow, amount of mud deposited or held in suspension. Duration of inundation. Tsunamis or tidal waves measured in height (meters).}
Causes
River flooding results from abnormally high precipitation rates or rapid snow melt in catchment areas, bringing more water into the hydrological system than can be adequately drained within existing river channels. Sedimentation of river beds and deforestation of catchment areas can exacerbate conditions leading to floods. High tides may flood coastal areas, or seas be driven inland by windstorms. Extensive precipitation in urban areas or drainage failures may lead to flooding in towns as hard urban surfaces increase run-off loads. Tsunamis are caused by underwater earthquakes or eruptions. Dam failures or collapse of water retaining walls (sea walls, dikes, levees).
Hazard assessment and mapping techniques
Historical records give first indication of flood return periods and extent. Topographic mapping and height contouring around river systems, together with estimates of capacity of hydrology system and catchment area. Precipitation and snow-melt records to estimate probability of overload. Coastal areas: tidal records, storm frequency, topography and beach section characteristics. Bay, coastal geography and breakwater characteristics.
Potential for reducing hazard
Retaining walls and levees along rivers, sea walls along coasts may keep high water levels out of flood plains. Water regulation (slowing up the rate at which water is discharged from catchment areas) can be achieved through construction of reservoirs, increasing vegetation cover to slow down run-off, and building sluice systems. Dredging deeper river channels and constructing alternative drainage routes (new river channels, pipe systems) may prevent river overload. Storm drains in towns assist drainage rate. Beaches, dune belts, breakwaters also reduce power of tidal surges.
Onset and warning
Flooding may happen gradually, building up depth over several hours, or suddenly with the breach of retaining walls. Heavy prolonged precipitation may warn of coming river flood or urban drainage overload. High tides with high winds may indicate chance of coastal flooding some hours before it occurs. Evacuation may be possible with suitable monitoring and warning system in place. Tsunamis arrive hours or minutes after earthquake.
Elements most at risk
Anything sited in flood plains. Earth buildings or masonry with water-soluble mortar. Buildings with shallow foundations or weak resistance to lateral loads or impact. Basements or underground buildings. Utilities: sewerage, power, water supply. Machinery and electronics including industry and communications equipment. Food stocks. Cultural artifacts. Confined/penned livestock and agriculture. Fishing boats and other maritime industries.
Main mitigation strategies
Land-use control and locations planning to avoid potential flood plain being the site of vulnerable elements. Engineering of structures in floodplain to withstand flood forces and design for elevated floor levels. Seepage-resistance infrastructure.
Community participation
Sedimentation clearance, dike construction. Awareness of flood plain. Houses constructed to be flood resistant (water-resistant materials, strong foundations). Farming practices to be flood-compatible. Awareness of deforestation. Living practices reflect awareness: storage and sleeping areas high off ground. Flood evacuation preparedness, boats and rescue equipment
　
　
　EarthquakesMechanism of destruction
Vibrational energy transmitted through the earth's surface from depth. Vibration causes damage and collapse of structures, which in turn may kill and injure occupants. Vibration may also cause landslides, liquifaction, rockfalls and other ground failures, damaging settlements in the vicinity. Vibration may also trigger multiple fires, industrial or transportation accidents and may trigger floods through failure of dams and other flood retaining embankments.
Parameters of severity
Magnitude scales (Richter, Seismic Moment) indicate the amount of energy release at the epicenter - the size of an area affected by an earthquake is roughly related to the amount of energy released. Intensity scales (Modified Mercalli, MSK) indicate severity of ground shaking at a location - severity of shaking is also related to magnitude of energy release, distance away from epicenter of the earthquake and local soil conditions.
Causes
Energy release by geophysical adjustments deep in the earth along faults formed in the earth's crust. Tectonic processes of continental drift. Local geomorphology shifts. Volcanic activity.
Hazard assessment and mapping techniques
Past occurrence of earthquakes and accurate logging of their size and effects: tendency for earthquakes to recur in the same areas over the centuries. Identification of seismic fault systems and seismic source regions. In rare cases it may be possible to identify individual causative faults. Quantification of probability of experiencing various strengths of ground motion at a site in terms of return period (average time between events) for an intensity.
Potential for reducing hazard
None.
Onset and warning
Sudden. Not currently possible to predict short-term earthquake occurrence with any accuracy.
Elements most at risk
Dense collections of weak buildings with high occupancy. Non-engineered buildings constructed by the householder: earth, rubble stone and unreinforced masonry buildings. Buildings with heavy roofs. Older structures with little lateral strength, poor quality buildings or buildings with construction defects. Tall buildings from distant earthquakes, and buildings built on loose soils. Structures sited on weak slopes. Infrastructure above ground or buried in deformable soils. Industrial and chemical plants also present secondary risks.
Main mitigation strategies
Engineering of structures to withstand vibration forces. Seismic building codes. Enforcement of compliance with building code requirements and encouragement of higher standards of construction quality. Construction of important public sector buildings to high standards of engineering design. Strengthening of important existing buildings known to be vulnerable. Location planning to reduce urban densities on geological areas known to amplify ground vibrations. Insurance. Seismic zonation and land-use regulations.
Community participation
Construction of earthquake-resistant buildings and desire to live in houses safe from seismic forces. Awareness of earthquake risk. Activities and day-to-day arrangements of building contents carried out bearing in mind possibility of ground shaking. Sources of naked flames, dangerous appliances etc. made stable and safe. Knowledge of what to do in the event of an earthquake occurrence; participation in earthquake drills, practices, public awareness programs. Community action groups for civil protection: fire-fighting and first aid training. Preparation of fire extinguishers, excavation tools and other civil protection equipment. Contingency plans for training family members at the family level.
　
Volcanic eruptionMechanism of destruction
Gradual or explosive eruption, ejecting hot ashes, pyroclastic flows, gases and dust. Blast pressures may destroy structures, forests and infrastructure close to the volcano and noxious gases may kill. Hot ash falls for many kilometers around the volcano, burning and burying settlements. Dust may carry for long distances, and fall as a pollutant on other settlements further away. Molten lava is released from the volcanic crater and may flow for many kilometers before solidifying. The heat of lava will burn most things in its path. Snow-capped volcanoes suffer ice-melt causing debris flows and landslides that can bury buildings. A volcanic eruption may alter the regional weather patterns, and destroy local ecology. Volcanoes may also cause ground upheaval during their formation.
Parameters of severity
Volume of material ejected. Explosiveness and duration of eruption, radius of fall-out, depth of ash deposit.
Causes
Ejection of magma from deep in the earth, associated with mantle convection currents. Tectonic processes of continental drift and plate formation.
Hazard assessment and mapping techniques
Identification of active volcanoes. Volcanoes readily identifiable by their topographical and geological characteristics. Activity rates from historical records and geological analysis. Seismic observation can determine whether a volcano is active.
Potential for reducing hazard
Lava flows and debris flows may be channelled, dammed and diverted away from settlements to some extent, by engineering works.
Onset and warning
Eruption may be gradual or explosive. Seismic and geochemical monitoring, tiltmeters, and mudflow detectors may be able to detect build up of pressure over the hours and days preceding eruption. Mud flow detection, geotechnical monitors and tiltmeters are some of the monitoring strategies available. Evacuation of population away from volcano environs is often possible.
Elements most at risk
Anything close to the volcano. Combustible roofs or buildings. Water supplies vulnerable to dust fall-out. Weak buildings may collapse under ash loads. Crops and livestock are at risk.
Main mitigation strategies
Location planning to avoid areas close to volcano slopes being used for important activities. Avoidance of likely lava-flow channels. Promotion of fire-resistant structures. Engineering of structures to withstand additional weight of ash deposit.
Community participation
Awareness of volcano risk. Identification of danger zones. Preparedness for evacuation. Fire-fighting skills. Taking shelter in strong, tire-resistant buildings.

DISASATER PREPAREDNESS PLANNING LESSON 5

LESSON FIVE:

CONTINGENCY PLANNING

A contingency is an event that may occur but that is not certain. Contingency planning takes place for these possible events. The following is one definition of contingency planning.

Contingency planning is a forward planning process, in a state of uncertainty, in which scenarios and objectives are agreed, managerial and technical actions defined, and potential response systems put in place in order to prevent, or better respond to, an emergency or critical situation.

Contingency planning is part of everyday life. A requirement for contingency planning is that the planning effort should match the gravity of the event combined with the risk of its happening. A good planning process will produce a good plan. Even though the emergency that occurs may be very different from the one planned for, the plan will still be useful. Although each emergency is different, most emergencies have a great deal in common. In almost all cases there will be a need for food, transport, medical care, and management. The parts of a contingency plan that list available resources will probably be useful no matter what the emergency. A good contingency plan ensures that you are better prepared for any emergency that may occur, even one that is very different from the scenario in the plan. It is often recommended that the cover page of a contingency plan bear the version number and approval date in large type to remind users that it is subject to revision. There can never be a final contingency plan.

The Emergency Continuum Model

The emergency continuum can be thought of as a cycle of crisis and response that can be seen in many emergencies around the world. In this model Emergency Preparation follows Early Warning. When the Emergency happens, it is followed by the immediate Emergency Response. This is followed in turn by the Long Term Response or Durable Solutions, which should ideally reduce vulnerability to future emergency events. While this model has been criticised for being too simplistic, it is still useful in relating contingency planning to both early warning and the potential emergencies being planned for. In many situations different elements of this cycle may exist simultaneously, with contingency planning for new events happening even after the initial emergency event and response have begun. This is particularly true in areas of long-term or chronic emergency situations.

Contingency planning should begin once an event moves from being a remote likelihood to being a distinct possibility. The initial stages of contingency planning have little direct monetary cost aside from the time of participants. Some contingency plan actions, such as building stock-piles or training staff, however, may require significant financial outlays. The Planning Continuum is parallel to the Emergency Continuum. While similar tools and activities are used, each type of planning has a different emphasis. The transition in planning activities from those which occur immediately before the emergency event to immediately after is reflected in the change from contingency planning to emergency response (or operations) planning.

The Relationship between Contingency Planning and Early Warning

With few exceptions, humanitarian emergencies are rarely sudden-onset events. They usually build up over time and their signs and symptoms are monitored through early warning systems supported by many international and national agencies. Early warnings should be linked to contingency planning. As analysis of early warning information indicates that an emergency event is more and more likely, the resources devoted to contingency planning should increase. Careful interpretation is required to verify the information and to analyze the implications in order to justify the initiation or implementation of a contingency plan.

Some of the common indicators monitored by early warning systems and assistance agencies are:

Population movements Observations may include the total number of people who have crossed or who are moving towards the border or the average rate of crossing a border.

Violence or security threats The outbreak of open fighting after a period of tension, or other violent incidents, may be a threshold for initiating contingency plans.

Resource constraints Contingency plans are often made in situations where essential resources are threatened, such as food and water resources in a refugee camp.

Economic indicators Many economic indicators, such as the price of staple foods, or livestock, may indicate impending food shortages.

Disease incidences The development of a contingency plan may be warranted by the presence of a disease with epidemic potential.

Natural disasters Contingency planning may cover droughts, floods or other hazards that may affect refugees or cause population movements.

PARTNERS IN THE PLANNING PROCESS

Everyone who will be responsible for any component of project implementation after an emergency should plan for contingencies. Contingency planning might permit a rapid response to any emergency, even if it differs from what was originally anticipated. Contingency plans may be made at a number of different levels. To be effective, however, contingency planning systems must allow for support, advice and feedback between branch and field offices. Systems in which all policy decisions are made at the central level and all operational decisions at the field level do not work.

SECTORAL PLANS

While a contingency plan may be thought of as a single document outlining the activities needed in all sectors, this is only true of the highest level or master plan. The contingency planning process will often reveal, and should build upon, sectoral or sub-sectoral plans that have been drawn up by agencies already working in those sectors. In the health sector, for example, a general contingency plan may be drawn up by the Ministry of Health and separate contingency plans drawn up by UNICEF and NGOs.

Sectoral plans may have various levels of detail, some containing complex written or formal contingency plans and others which are broad and general or rely heavily on standard internal procedures. The contingency planning process should bring all of the sub-sectoral plans together into a common, harmonized plan for each sector.

The Benefits of Partnerships in Planning

Partner agencies enrich the planning process as they bring needed information and expertise. While involving other agencies may make the process slower, there are many advantages that outweigh this disadvantage. These include a better quality of planning, enhanced acceptance and commitment to the plan, and building relationships among partner agencies and staff.

Better planning

A contingency plan should cover all sectors. No person or organization can be an expert in every sector of the increasingly complex emergencies taking place today. Bringing more viewpoints, more specialist knowledge, and more years of experience into the planning process means that more factors are considered. Broad processes with more participants reduce the chance of the plan being a failure and the types of oversights or false assumptions that might result in needless deaths are minimized.

Acceptance and Commitment

When agencies are fully involved in the planning process, their views are taken into account. Through their agreement with the final plan, agencies should feel more committed to the outcome. It is less likely that agencies would choose to ‘go it alone’ or reject a commonly developed plan when they have played a role in its development.

Building Relationships

An emergency places enormous pressure on all the players involved. Relationships developed before an emergency may help to enhance communication and ease stresses during the emergency. In addition, an understanding of each agency’s strengths and weaknesses may assist in the implementation of plans. Finally, the personal relationships developed during the planning process may also make it easier to discuss sensitive topics.

Contingency Planning as Consensus Building

As contingency planning ties together all the information from different sectors and partners to give a final result that reflects all of their inputs, it builds a consensus on steps to be taken to address the emergency. Creating this consensus before the emergency means that less time is lost in debate when the emergency happens. It also ensures that the same policies (e.g. for supplementary feeding, vaccination, treatment, water supply, food distribution etc.) are followed by all partner agencies.

Consensus building is a leveling and averaging process that may produce a product of the least risk to the group. For example, projected scenarios that are unpopular with the group may be swept aside, even though they may be the most likely. This might be called ‘group-think,’ where loyalty to the group view tends to obscure reality. To avoid this, open-minded and critical analysis should be encouraged for all suggested scenarios and reflection promoted on creative planning alternatives.

PARTNERS INVOLVED IN CONTIGENCY PLANNING

Government

Governments play the key role in emergencies. Although UNHCR may assist national governments with the co-ordination of a refugee crisis, governments retain sovereignty and have the final word. The host government ultimately decides where refugees will be settled, and many other issues concerning their protection and assistance. If the government is not involved from the start of the process, the contingency plan will be based on many assumptions about government actions.

It is especially important that the relevant government ministry or ministries play a role in the formulation of policy in the planning process. Government involvement in contingency planning is more likely to lead to more appropriate emergency responses. The feeling of control over the situation based on an appropriate plan may make quick, reactionary decisions less likely and will help to prevent unrealistic estimates and rumours.

UN and Intergovernmental Agencies

UN and intergovernmental agencies should be involved in contingency planning in proportion to their potential involvement in responding to an emergency. Agencies that are likely to play a key role should play a full part in contingency planning. For example, the World Food Programme is likely to have its own sectoral contingency plan for food aid logistics; this should be incorporated into the overall plan. Some agencies may play a limited role in contingency planning.

NGOs

National or international NGOs likely to play key roles in the emergency should have key roles in contingency planning. Agencies with experienced staff and those with funding can provide significant resources to the planning process.

Refugees and the Local Population

Refugees will only be able to participate in certain types of contingency planning. In the case of a refugee influx, inviting the participation of potential refugees in advance is not usually possible. Existing refugee populations should be involved to the degree possible in operational decisions affecting them as well as providing input for policy decisions. It is also essential to involve the local population in planning decisions that directly affect them, for example, in sharing water sources with refugees. Consultation beforehand is generally much easier to deal with than disputes afterwards. NGOs or agency staff who are familiar with the local or refugee population may act as advocates and can be valuable sources of information on cultural and social preferences.

Donor Representatives

Involvement of donor representatives in contingency planning is appropriate when there is a need to establish contingency stocks or to fund other contingency preparations. Even when there is not likely to be a need for such funding, involving donor representatives during the contingency planning stage can speed the release of funds once the emergency happens. Though donor representatives do not need to be part of the entire contingency planning process unless they have a particular skill or expertise to offer, it is often useful to brief them on the process as an indicator of overall emergency preparedness.

Use of Outside Experts

Contingency plans are sometimes developed, written or facilitated by external experts. This approach may be required if offices are understaffed or in extreme cases of urgency. If such a method of planning is needed, efforts should be made by the external team to involve all partner agencies as much as possible in the process.

DISASTER PREPAREDNESS PLANNING LESSON 4

LESSON FOUR

DISASTER PREPAREDNESS PLANNING

Disaster preparedness planning involves identifying organizational resources, determining roles and responsibilities, developing policies and procedures and planning activities in order to reach a level of preparedness to be able to respond timely and effectively to a disaster should one occur. The actual planning process is preliminary in nature and is performed in a state of uncertainty until an actual emergency or disaster occurs.

NEED FOR PREPAREDNESS PLANNING

The concept of preparedness planning is very important for those involved in disaster management. During an actual emergency, quick and effective action is required and it will depend on having plans in place before a disaster strikes.

In a preliminary plan, we can identify:-

1.      Emergency shelter sites

2.      Plan and publicize evacuation routes.

3.      Identify emergency water sources

4.      Determine chains of command and communication procedures.

5.      Train response personnel

6.      Educate people what to do in case of an emergency.

OBSTACLES TO PREPAREDNESS PLANNING

Preparedness planning is more difficult than planning an emergency operation in response to an actual disaster.

1.      Resistance to plan because it diverts attention and scarce resources away from ongoing work to plan for an event that may not occur.

2.      Political pressure on decision makers to address or acknowledge possible disaster scenarios.

This may be overcome by promoting its importance and making preparedness planning on going process at the time of relative normality.

Planning may be ineffective if all affected parties are not included in the process. Experience shows that plans created by an external person or by an isolated individual or agency are usually not valued and used. A team approach is the most desirable because it allows for diverse perspectives to be shared during the planning process.

COMMUNICATION AND COORDINATION OF PLANS

National programmes should communicate with and coordinate their plans with those of other government agencies and non-governmental organizations involved in disaster response, to improve planning, reduce duplication of efforts, make plans more realistic and increase the overall effectiveness of disaster response.

Direct coordination helps agencies to clearly divide responsibility for different operations and plan their actions accordingly. Joint development and updating of preparedness plans can serve as the basis for coordination among agencies.

It is critical that all stakeholders both at a national and local level clarify their respective roles and responsibility   ties in disaster preparedness and response and establish the necessary communication and coordination mechanisms among the different levels.

A plan must be a live document and planners should encourage viewing, critique and discussion from those who approve it and implement its components.

PLAN ELEMENTS

1.      Management, organization and coordination

Many agencies take part in emergency response operations; therefore clear coordination of activities is required to ensure that the maximum number of people is assisted in the shortest possible time and to avoid unnecessary duplication of services.

When creating a preparedness plan each agency should also identify the activities it will be responsible for and its anticipated level of involvement in the event of an emergency and where the responsibility of each function will reside. If two groups will perform similar function, it is important to clarify the distinct and overlapping roles of each organization.

2.      Assessment of portable needs

Based on previous disasters, planners should compile a list of likely needs and available resources.

3.      Activating population emergency notification and disaster response system

The plan should define ways to provide the population with emergency warning as well as the people who are responsible for this function. There must be a system for initiating a disaster response in case of an emergency.

The plan should also ensure ways of involving volunteers and allowing staff to work extra hours.

4.      Emergency needs assessment

Effective response operations are impossible without a precise emergency or disaster situation assessment and thorough evaluation of required humanitarian and other relief. To be effective, assessment work should be well planned and organized before it is carried out. A comprehensive needs assessment should be conducted immediately after an emergency and updated thereafter.

When planning for an emergency needs assessment, identify:-

                                i.            Who and when is responsible for the assessment.

                              ii.            What information is required at each stage of the emergency?

                            iii.            How and where research teams will be formed and trained

                            iv.            What standards are being used to indicate the severity of the emergency?

           

The minimum humanitarian standards in disaster response developed by the sphere project can assist organizations in prioritizing information collection needs and planning an appropriate level of response. It includes the information on the following sectors:-

                                i.            Water supply and sanitation

                              ii.            Nutrition

                            iii.            Food aid

                            iv.            Shelter and site planning

                              v.            Health services

5.      Resource mobilization and allocation

Responding to an emergency and implementing the preparedness plan will require resources. The preparedness plan should consider:-

                                i.            Availability and quantity of resources.

                              ii.            The number of staff needed during an emergency.

                            iii.            Plans for procuring the resources that are not currently available.

                            iv.            Identify resources that will be needed and not readily available.

6.      Communication between agencies

Sharing and exchanging information among representatives of various agencies is crucial during emergencies, to ensure clear and effective communication in an emergency. The plan should specify how communication will take place and via what medium.

7.      Sector components

                                i.            Rescue and medical assistance for the affected

Major emergencies and disasters often result in deaths and injuries. The disaster preparedness plan should outline;-

ü  The responsible organization for search and rescue

ü  How to dispose off dead bodies

ü  The organization to deliver first aid

ü  Who will be responsible for medical evacuations and hospitalization.

                              ii.            Water and sanitation

In an emergency there is lack of safe drinking water, which may cause serious health problems. Since people can live without food longer than water, supply of clean drinking water is a priority in an emergency. Sanitation includes; provision of safe water; disposal of human excreta, wastewater and garbage; insect and rodent control; safe food handling; and site drainage.

                            iii.            Food and nutrition

Food provision is aimed at meeting the need of the affected population during an emergency. The preparedness plan should define, calculate and stipulate how food will be provided in emergencies of differing intensities and impacts.

                             iv.            Logistics and transport

Emergency response operations require transport of humanitarian and personnel and equipment to the disaster site. Logistics and transport issues are crucial to a successful response.

                               v.            Health and nutrition

Access to safe water, good sanitary conditions of dwellings and proper nutrition help avoid diseases.

                             vi.            Shelter

In some cases urgent shelter provision is needed for those whose houses have been destroyed or are unsafe. Urgent repair work; provision of tents and tarpaulins for temporary shelter; or sheltering homeless people in public buildings like schools may be required.

                           vii.            Search and reunification of families

One of the priority social welfare tasks in many relief operations is to quickly initiate a search for missing people and reunite lost family members. The family is the basic social unit in most societies and plays a key role in meeting needs and solving community problems.

                         viii.            Protection and security

Preparedness plans should identify who is responsible for protection and security, and identify the actions to be taken to ensure the protection of the affected population and their belongings as well as the safety of the emergency responders.

ENSURING PLN IMPLEMENTATION

           

1)      Public awareness

Corporation among disaster response agencies and the public is essential if response operations are to be successful. Agencies involved in response operations need to inform the public in the at risk areas about the responses plans and arrangements for the area, as well as educate them about basic local preparedness measures that they can take to reduce the impact of a potential disaster.

2)      Updating the plan

Plans become outdated due to social, economic, organizational and other changes. Keeping the plan current and relevant is a difficult task, but can be achieved by scheduling regular reviews.

3)      Links to national plan

It is the responsibility of the government to ensure the safety and preparedness of its citizens, and to coordinate the work of various organizations involved in disaster response.

4)      Rehearsals, training and plan review

The only way to know if a plan works is to implement it, evaluate it and revise it as appropriate.

Rehearsals will expose both the strengths and weaknesses in preparedness plan. They are the only way to keep plans fresh and should be followed with discussions on updating and modifying the plan to improve it.

Based on the actual response, organizations can review their preparedness plans and update them to reflect the reality, opportunities and challenges experienced in a disaster situation.

Example of a typical structure of a disaster preparedness plan

Introduction	Legislative Authority Related documents
The Am, Definition and abbreviation, The country (region, State)	Topography Climate Demography Industry Government organization
The threat	History Natural events (by Type) Industrial accidents (by type)
Command and coordination	Powers and responsibilities at each level Command authorities and posts Description and role of Emergency service
Planning groups	Arrangements for sectoral planning (such as Medical, Transport, and Communications)
External assistance	Arrangements and authority for requesting assistance from outside the planning area.
Emergency operations centers, Activation of organizations	Warning systems Receipt and Dissemination of Warnings
Operational information, Counter disaster organizations	Government Departments Defense ministry Local Government Voluntary Organization Arrangements for Liaison
Administration, Financial procedures, supply	Emergency Purchasing Procedures Powers for Requisitioning
Public information	Announcements (requiring action) Information releases Emergency broadcasting Multi – language broadcasts
Sub – plans	Communications, Police, Fire services, Medical, Rescue, Welfare, Housing, Public works, Transport, Power, Registration and Tracing services.