LESSON FIVE:
CONTINGENCY PLANNING
A contingency is an event that may occur but that is not certain. Contingency planning takes place for these possible events. The following is one definition of contingency planning.
Contingency planning is a forward planning process, in a state of uncertainty, in which scenarios and objectives are agreed, managerial and technical actions defined, and potential response systems put in place in order to prevent, or better respond to, an emergency or critical situation.
Contingency planning is part of everyday life. A requirement for contingency planning is that the planning effort should match the gravity of the event combined with the risk of its happening. A good planning process will produce a good plan. Even though the emergency that occurs may be very different from the one planned for, the plan will still be useful. Although each emergency is different, most emergencies have a great deal in common. In almost all cases there will be a need for food, transport, medical care, and management. The parts of a contingency plan that list available resources will probably be useful no matter what the emergency. A good contingency plan ensures that you are better prepared for any emergency that may occur, even one that is very different from the scenario in the plan. It is often recommended that the cover page of a contingency plan bear the version number and approval date in large type to remind users that it is subject to revision. There can never be a final contingency plan.
The Emergency Continuum Model
The emergency continuum can be thought of as a cycle of crisis and response that can be seen in many emergencies around the world. In this model Emergency Preparation follows Early Warning. When the Emergency happens, it is followed by the immediate Emergency Response. This is followed in turn by the Long Term Response or Durable Solutions, which should ideally reduce vulnerability to future emergency events. While this model has been criticised for being too simplistic, it is still useful in relating contingency planning to both early warning and the potential emergencies being planned for. In many situations different elements of this cycle may exist simultaneously, with contingency planning for new events happening even after the initial emergency event and response have begun. This is particularly true in areas of long-term or chronic emergency situations.
Contingency planning should begin once an event moves from being a remote likelihood to being a distinct possibility. The initial stages of contingency planning have little direct monetary cost aside from the time of participants. Some contingency plan actions, such as building stock-piles or training staff, however, may require significant financial outlays. The Planning Continuum is parallel to the Emergency Continuum. While similar tools and activities are used, each type of planning has a different emphasis. The transition in planning activities from those which occur immediately before the emergency event to immediately after is reflected in the change from contingency planning to emergency response (or operations) planning.
The Relationship between Contingency Planning and Early Warning
With few exceptions, humanitarian emergencies are rarely sudden-onset events. They usually build up over time and their signs and symptoms are monitored through early warning systems supported by many international and national agencies. Early warnings should be linked to contingency planning. As analysis of early warning information indicates that an emergency event is more and more likely, the resources devoted to contingency planning should increase. Careful interpretation is required to verify the information and to analyze the implications in order to justify the initiation or implementation of a contingency plan.
Some of the common indicators monitored by early warning systems and assistance agencies are:
Population movements Observations may include the total number of people who have crossed or who are moving towards the border or the average rate of crossing a border.
Violence or security threats The outbreak of open fighting after a period of tension, or other violent incidents, may be a threshold for initiating contingency plans.
Resource constraints Contingency plans are often made in situations where essential resources are threatened, such as food and water resources in a refugee camp.
Economic indicators Many economic indicators, such as the price of staple foods, or livestock, may indicate impending food shortages.
Disease incidences The development of a contingency plan may be warranted by the presence of a disease with epidemic potential.
Natural disasters Contingency planning may cover droughts, floods or other hazards that may affect refugees or cause population movements.
PARTNERS IN THE PLANNING PROCESS
Everyone who will be responsible for any component of project implementation after an emergency should plan for contingencies. Contingency planning might permit a rapid response to any emergency, even if it differs from what was originally anticipated. Contingency plans may be made at a number of different levels. To be effective, however, contingency planning systems must allow for support, advice and feedback between branch and field offices. Systems in which all policy decisions are made at the central level and all operational decisions at the field level do not work.
SECTORAL PLANS
While a contingency plan may be thought of as a single document outlining the activities needed in all sectors, this is only true of the highest level or master plan. The contingency planning process will often reveal, and should build upon, sectoral or sub-sectoral plans that have been drawn up by agencies already working in those sectors. In the health sector, for example, a general contingency plan may be drawn up by the Ministry of Health and separate contingency plans drawn up by UNICEF and NGOs.
Sectoral plans may have various levels of detail, some containing complex written or formal contingency plans and others which are broad and general or rely heavily on standard internal procedures. The contingency planning process should bring all of the sub-sectoral plans together into a common, harmonized plan for each sector.
The Benefits of Partnerships in Planning
Partner agencies enrich the planning process as they bring needed information and expertise. While involving other agencies may make the process slower, there are many advantages that outweigh this disadvantage. These include a better quality of planning, enhanced acceptance and commitment to the plan, and building relationships among partner agencies and staff.
Better planning
A contingency plan should cover all sectors. No person or organization can be an expert in every sector of the increasingly complex emergencies taking place today. Bringing more viewpoints, more specialist knowledge, and more years of experience into the planning process means that more factors are considered. Broad processes with more participants reduce the chance of the plan being a failure and the types of oversights or false assumptions that might result in needless deaths are minimized.
Acceptance and Commitment
When agencies are fully involved in the planning process, their views are taken into account. Through their agreement with the final plan, agencies should feel more committed to the outcome. It is less likely that agencies would choose to ‘go it alone’ or reject a commonly developed plan when they have played a role in its development.
Building Relationships
An emergency places enormous pressure on all the players involved. Relationships developed before an emergency may help to enhance communication and ease stresses during the emergency. In addition, an understanding of each agency’s strengths and weaknesses may assist in the implementation of plans. Finally, the personal relationships developed during the planning process may also make it easier to discuss sensitive topics.
Contingency Planning as Consensus Building
As contingency planning ties together all the information from different sectors and partners to give a final result that reflects all of their inputs, it builds a consensus on steps to be taken to address the emergency. Creating this consensus before the emergency means that less time is lost in debate when the emergency happens. It also ensures that the same policies (e.g. for supplementary feeding, vaccination, treatment, water supply, food distribution etc.) are followed by all partner agencies.
Consensus building is a leveling and averaging process that may produce a product of the least risk to the group. For example, projected scenarios that are unpopular with the group may be swept aside, even though they may be the most likely. This might be called ‘group-think,’ where loyalty to the group view tends to obscure reality. To avoid this, open-minded and critical analysis should be encouraged for all suggested scenarios and reflection promoted on creative planning alternatives.
PARTNERS INVOLVED IN CONTIGENCY PLANNING
Government
Governments play the key role in emergencies. Although UNHCR may assist national governments with the co-ordination of a refugee crisis, governments retain sovereignty and have the final word. The host government ultimately decides where refugees will be settled, and many other issues concerning their protection and assistance. If the government is not involved from the start of the process, the contingency plan will be based on many assumptions about government actions.
It is especially important that the relevant government ministry or ministries play a role in the formulation of policy in the planning process. Government involvement in contingency planning is more likely to lead to more appropriate emergency responses. The feeling of control over the situation based on an appropriate plan may make quick, reactionary decisions less likely and will help to prevent unrealistic estimates and rumours.
UN and Intergovernmental Agencies
UN and intergovernmental agencies should be involved in contingency planning in proportion to their potential involvement in responding to an emergency. Agencies that are likely to play a key role should play a full part in contingency planning. For example, the World Food Programme is likely to have its own sectoral contingency plan for food aid logistics; this should be incorporated into the overall plan. Some agencies may play a limited role in contingency planning.
NGOs
National or international NGOs likely to play key roles in the emergency should have key roles in contingency planning. Agencies with experienced staff and those with funding can provide significant resources to the planning process.
Refugees and the Local Population
Refugees will only be able to participate in certain types of contingency planning. In the case of a refugee influx, inviting the participation of potential refugees in advance is not usually possible. Existing refugee populations should be involved to the degree possible in operational decisions affecting them as well as providing input for policy decisions. It is also essential to involve the local population in planning decisions that directly affect them, for example, in sharing water sources with refugees. Consultation beforehand is generally much easier to deal with than disputes afterwards. NGOs or agency staff who are familiar with the local or refugee population may act as advocates and can be valuable sources of information on cultural and social preferences.
Donor Representatives
Involvement of donor representatives in contingency planning is appropriate when there is a need to establish contingency stocks or to fund other contingency preparations. Even when there is not likely to be a need for such funding, involving donor representatives during the contingency planning stage can speed the release of funds once the emergency happens. Though donor representatives do not need to be part of the entire contingency planning process unless they have a particular skill or expertise to offer, it is often useful to brief them on the process as an indicator of overall emergency preparedness.
Use of Outside Experts
Contingency plans are sometimes developed, written or facilitated by external experts. This approach may be required if offices are understaffed or in extreme cases of urgency. If such a method of planning is needed, efforts should be made by the external team to involve all partner agencies as much as possible in the process.
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